 ▲ Bitcoin (BTC) |
Bitcoin (BTC)’s recent rally has injected fresh optimism into the market. However, some analysts suggest that this surge may not mark the beginning of a sustained uptrend but rather the formation of a macro lower high.
NewsBTC reported on March 6 that the current spike is likely to remain a temporary rebound within a broader market structure. Crypto analyst Ardi stated on X (formerly Twitter) that Bitcoin’s ongoing rally within a specific range may simply be part of a process to establish a macro lower high.
Ardi noted that the range in which Bitcoin is currently trading represents the longest consolidation phase of the bull market spanning from 2021 to 2025. This sideways period, which lasted approximately 259 days from March to November 2024, accumulated substantial liquidity. From a structural perspective, he explained that this zone is the most logical target for a short-term rally following a macro correction. Ardi assessed that the current upward movement is merely absorbing the liquidity built up in this area and is insufficient to be viewed as a full trend reversal.
Conversely, there is also the possibility of a “pain trade,” a move that defies prevailing market expectations. Crypto analyst Bobby A argued that while many traders are anticipating a repeat of the 2022 downturn pattern, Bitcoin could instead stage a powerful additional rally, quickly entering the $100,000 range. If this scenario materializes, a majority of investors waiting on the sidelines for lower prices could find themselves left out of the market. Bobby A projected that after a sharp surge, Bitcoin may undergo a new consolidation phase lasting several months between $80,000 and $100,000.
Technical indicators suggest that Bitcoin’s upward momentum is currently slowing. Resistance from sellers has been identified around the $74,000 level, leading to a modest pullback. On the hourly chart, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is losing strength within bullish territory, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen below the 50 level. To confirm a stable recovery, Bitcoin must secure a daily close above $72,500; failure to do so could open the door to further declines toward the $69,000 range.
The Bitcoin market is currently navigating a period of uncertainty marked by a tight clash between optimistic projections and cautious warnings. Technical constraints pointing to the formation of a macro lower high intersect with strong psychological expectations of a breakout above $100,000, amplifying volatility. The ability to reclaim key resistance levels and trends in liquidity supply are likely to determine Bitcoin’s long-term direction.
Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference purposes only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses incurred based on it. The information should be interpreted solely for informational purposes.