 ▲ Solana (SOL) / AI-generated image © |
Despite a recent 40% rebound, Solana (SOL) has once again lost upward momentum, with analysts suggesting that the $86 level has emerged as a key inflection point that could determine its next direction.
According to Trading News on March 6 (local time), SOL was trading at $85.33, down 4.16% on the day. Its market capitalization stood at $48.64 billion, with a 24-hour trading volume of $4.09 billion. The current price is დაახლოებით 40% lower than about $149 a year ago and roughly 57% below its July 2025 cycle high.
Nevertheless, institutional capital appears to remain in the market. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas reported that cumulative inflows into spot Solana ETFs have increased to approximately $1.45 billion, more than tripling from about $410 million last October. Notably, around 50% of total assets are held by institutional investors filing 13F reports, indicating a strong long-term investment orientation.
However, on-chain data has revealed warning signals. While SOL rebounded about 40% from $67 to $94, the supply held by long-term holders of more than three years declined from 9.77% to 7.28%. This suggests that some of the longest-standing investors reduced their holdings during the rally. At the same time, the daily chart shows a hidden bearish divergence, with price forming lower highs while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) posted higher highs.
In the derivatives market, retail investors have also been unwinding positions. Over the past 24 hours, approximately $11.91 million in liquidations occurred, of which about $8.43 million were long positions. Open interest fell 1% to around $5.2 billion, while the funding rate plunged from 0.0067% to -0.0078%, reflecting a rapid shift toward bearish sentiment.
Technically, the $86.80–$87.82 range is identified as a key support zone. About 13.1 million SOL were accumulated in this price range, forming a significant cost-basis cluster. If this level breaks down, the next support levels could open at $78.35, $77.67, and $73.21. Conversely, for a rebound to gain traction, SOL would need to reclaim $92, followed by a move above the 50-day moving average at $97.57 and the psychological resistance level of $100.
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