 ▲ Bitcoin (BTC), decline, bear market/ChatGPT-generated image © |
Amid extreme volatility driven by geopolitical tensions, inflows into spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have turned back into net outflows, heightening market anxiety over the direction of Bitcoin (BTC), which has fallen below the $70,000 level.
According to crypto media outlet The Block on March 6 (local time), U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded inflows for three consecutive trading days from March 2 to 4, but the upward trend was broken on March 5 with net outflows of $227.9 million. Based on SoSoValue data, inflows over the three-day period nearly reached $1 billion, but macroeconomic uncertainty ultimately weighed on the market, pushing Bitcoin down 4.1% from 24 hours earlier to $69,925. Major altcoins, including Ethereum (ETH), also extended their declines.
Analysts are divided over the recent volatility. Bitfinex noted that approximately $3.5 billion in buying pressure has entered the spot market since March 1, and that the Coinbase premium has turned positive for the first time in 40 days, suggesting institutions are absorbing selling pressure from miners and long-term holders. Binance Research similarly analyzed that Bitcoin’s სწრაფ rebound above $70,000 after plunging to $63,000 in the immediate aftermath of geopolitical shocks indicates the market is not in panic but is closely monitoring developments.
Amid war-related tensions, Bitcoin’s potential role as a safe-haven asset has resurfaced. Matt Mena of 21Shares assessed that Bitcoin is serving as an alternative safe haven to gold. In contrast, Nansen argued that the market remains trapped within a $60,000 to $71,000 range, with institutions focusing on generating stable returns rather than making directional bets. QCP Capital warned that a sustained period of high oil prices could limit any upward rally.
Short-term risks also remain. According to Bitfinex, open interest is rising alongside spot buying, but a concentration of long position liquidations near the $70,000 level means that if the market experiences significant turbulence, Bitcoin could retreat to the $66,000 support level. Experts, including CryptoQuant, advised treating the current rebound as a temporary relief rally and maintaining a cautious approach until upcoming employment and inflation data are released.
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