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Bitcoin (BTC) has broken its prolonged downtrend and surged past $70,000, raising investor expectations. However, a prominent expert has issued a strong warning that a premature rally without sufficient consolidation could prove toxic to a long-term bull market.
According to cryptocurrency media outlet Bitcoinist on March 6 (local time), Bitcoin endured a harsh correction over the past five months, falling 55% from its peak. Over the past 25 days, it has traded within a narrow range just below $70,000. The price recently soared to an intraday high of $73,952 before trading around $71,000, making a strong attempt to break above the upper boundary of its range.
Bulls expect that if Bitcoin closes this week above $70,000, it will finally end the dreadful five-month downtrend and enter a new upward phase. On the monthly chart, a positive green signal has appeared for the first time in a while, stimulating buying sentiment across the market.
However, virtual asset analyst Ardi warned that such an early breakout could represent the worst-case scenario for investors hoping for a sustained bull run. According to technical market theory, sideways movement within a range serves as an accumulation phase where buyers and sellers build a foundation for the next major move. Twenty-five days, he argues, is far too short a period to offset the massive bearish momentum built up over five months.
He assessed that the current chart structure has not formed a sufficiently solid base to support a sustainable long-term rally. If Bitcoin had remained within the current range for several months rather than just a few weeks, thoroughly absorbing supply, a future breakout could have enjoyed much stronger structural support, potentially paving the way for an unstoppable surge toward new all-time highs.
Ultimately, for the market to write a new chapter based on solid fundamentals, it may require a prolonged period of patient, tedious consolidation rather than an immediate and precarious price breakout. As it is still too early to declare that Bitcoin has completely escaped its recent trading range, investors should confirm structural market stability before engaging in impulsive buying.
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