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XRP is facing a critical test as it must defend a multi-year key support line to maintain the massive upward momentum needed to reach the historic $8 milestone.
According to cryptocurrency media outlet The Crypto Basic on March 4 (local time), XRP has plunged more than 52% from its peak amid a downtrend that began in the fourth quarter of 2025, recording five consecutive monthly losses for the first time since 2017. Market analyst Mark Brennan assessed the current price correction as a normal process within a bull market, analyzing that if XRP successfully defends the ascending support trendline it has maintained since 2018, a Wave 3 rally toward $8 could begin.
Chart analyst CoinsKid pointed out that XRP is currently showing a pattern similar to the downward wave seen between 2021 and 2023. According to the analysis, XRP peaked at $3.66 in July 2025 before retreating to around $1.35. CoinsKid emphasized that holding the long-term ascending support line formed near $0.85 will be the most decisive factor in maintaining a bullish scenario going forward. This support level has historically acted as a strong foundation for rebounds during major downturns, including in 2020 and 2023.
From a technical perspective, XRP must break above the descending resistance trendline near $1.55 with strong trading volume to fully escape the downtrend. If XRP fails to hold the $0.85 support and forms a weekly close below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of $0.6248, the price risks falling to $0.3855 or even below $0.10. However, if the support holds and a rebound follows, analysts believe XRP could replicate its explosive rallies seen after past resistance breakouts, potentially surging to a minimum of $8 and as high as $27.
Currently, XRP remains within a typical downward channel marked by lower highs and lower lows, prompting investors to adopt a cautious approach. CoinsKid advised investors to wait for a clear breakout above descending resistance rather than attempting to prematurely predict the bottom, suggesting that moment as a more appropriate entry point.
As volatility persists in the digital asset market, whether XRP can defend its technical support levels is expected to become a key barometer for overall altcoin market sentiment. The long-term target of $8 is not mere speculation but is derived from recurring historical wave patterns and established support structures, meaning the outcome of this support test could determine price direction for the next several years. Investors are closely watching for breakout signals that would indicate the start of Wave 3 while focusing on strategic asset allocation.
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