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Bitcoin (BTC) has recovered $71,000 despite uncertainties surrounding conflict in the Middle East and is attempting to break above the upper boundary of its trading range.
According to investment media outlet FXStreet on March 4 (local time), Bitcoin rose 5% to trade above $71,000, approaching resistance near $72,000 at the top of its recent consolidation range. U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $225.15 million the previous day, marking two consecutive days of inflows this week. Following net inflows on a weekly basis last week as well, analysts say institutional demand continues to support prices.
On-chain data provider SoSoValue noted that if spot ETF inflows persist, the short-term recovery trend could strengthen. However, if the military conflict between the United States and Iran that began over the weekend becomes prolonged, market volatility may increase.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard stated that it maintains control over the Strait of Hormuz, heightening tensions around the waterway through which about 20% of global oil supply passes. As a result, international oil prices rose more than 2.5%. If the war drags on, rising transportation and production costs could reignite global inflationary pressures, potentially reinforcing central banks’ tightening stance and constraining liquidity for risk assets.
Technically, Bitcoin continues its attempt to break higher. On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 54, above the 50 level, strengthening upward momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is also expanding in positive territory above the signal line. Immediate resistance lies at $71,980 at the top of the channel. A daily close above this level could open the way to the 50-day exponential moving average at $74,400, followed by the psychological resistance at $80,000 and the 100-day EMA at $81,900.
Conversely, if Bitcoin falls below the lower boundary of the channel at $65,100, the likelihood of retesting the horizontal support at $60,000 increases. Caught between the positive catalyst of ETF inflows and the variable of geopolitical risk, Bitcoin stands at a critical inflection point.
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