 ▲ Smoke rises over Tehran, Iran, following an Israeli attack on the 28th (local time) © |
A Polymarket account that precisely predicted the timing of the Iran airstrikes has come under suspicion of using insider information after generating nearly $500,000 in profits in just three days.
According to cryptocurrency outlet Finbold on March 2 (local time), wallet address 0x1caA6a7ad0c6916, created in February 2026, focused its bets on Polymarket on a contract asking, “Will the U.S. strike Iran by February 28?” and earned approximately $493,512 in profit. The account purchased more than 560,000 “Yes” contracts expiring on February 28 at an average price of $0.108, investing about $60,000. It also allocated additional funds to contracts with nearby expiration dates, including March 1.
When the United States carried out a large-scale airstrike on February 28, the contract settled at $1 per share, bringing the account’s cumulative profit to $493,512. The maximum open position value exceeded $560,000 immediately after settlement. Market suspicion grew particularly because the account deposited an additional $30,000 about 10 hours before the strikes began and concentrated funds in contracts with closely overlapping expiration dates.
In the days leading up to the airstrike, trading volume for Iran-related Polymarket contracts surpassed $529 million. Other newly created accounts around the same time also recorded profits ranging from hundreds of thousands to millions of dollars. An analytics firm tracked at least six accounts that focused bets on the February 28 strike timing, generating a combined total of about $1.2 million in profits.
Similar cases followed. One trader earned approximately $553,000 by betting on the loss of power of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The Iranian government later officially confirmed his death. The recent airstrike, named “Operation Epic Fury,” targeted Iran’s military leadership and nuclear and missile facilities. Following the attack, Iran immediately launched retaliatory strikes against U.S. bases and allied facilities in the Gulf region, with explosions reported in Tehran and Dubai.
Critics argue that Polymarket’s anonymous structure and lack of mandatory identity verification could enable the misuse of confidential or privileged information. Supporters, however, contend that prediction markets reflect collective intelligence and can provide faster signals than traditional intelligence analysis. Nevertheless, this case highlights once again the impact geopolitical shocks can have on prediction markets and the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem.
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