 ▲ Iran, Bitcoin (BTC), stock market / ChatGPT-generated image © |
Amid geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East following the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Bitcoin (BTC), the market bellwether, has captured attention by demonstrating stronger resilience than the U.S. New York stock market. Even as equities waver due to a flight to safe-haven assets, the crypto market has defied expectations, showcasing its characteristic price defense and reigniting hopes of a rebound.
According to investment media outlet FXStreet on March 2 (local time), Bitcoin, which had fallen to $63,000 over the weekend in the aftermath of U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran, rebounded 1.1% after midnight to recover the $66,500 level. While the Middle East conflict fueled risk-off sentiment across the broader stock market—pushing S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures down 1.1% and 1.5%, respectively, and driving gold, silver, and international oil prices up sharply to $82 per barrel—crypto assets remained relatively firm. Major altcoins including Morpho (MORPHO), Jupiter (JUP), Aave (AAVE), and Lido (LDO) also turned higher in line with Bitcoin’s movement.
The crypto market has now returned to the midpoint of the $62,500 to $70,000 range that has persisted since early February. Market analysis firm QCP noted that approximately $300 million in long positions were forcibly liquidated on centralized exchanges immediately after news of the airstrikes broke. However, the scale of selling was more limited than feared, suggesting that investors had already trimmed positions and prepared for extreme weekend volatility.
Derivatives market indicators show that the impact of war fears stemming from Iran was far less severe than expected. Total crypto futures open interest declined 2% to $93.78 billion, still comfortably above the recent low of $92.4 billion. Annualized perpetual funding rates for major cryptocurrencies edged slightly into negative territory, indicating a modest bearish bias, but no signs of panic selling capable of overwhelming the market emerged.
The Bitcoin 30-day annualized implied volatility index (BVIV), a gauge of investor sentiment, remained stable at around 58.8%, staying within last week’s price range. Ethereum (ETH) showed a similar volatility pattern. However, on the options exchange Deribit, short-term Bitcoin put options traded at an 8% to 10% higher volatility premium than calls, reflecting caution over downside risks. In particular, the $60,000 put option was the most popular trade, with clear demand observed for put spreads.
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