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As a geopolitical powder keg in the Middle East erupted, freezing global asset markets, Bitcoin (BTC) quickly recovered its weekend losses, signaling a strong buying opportunity.
According to crypto media outlet Decrypt on March 2 (local time), Bitcoin, which had plunged to $63,000 over the weekend following reports of the death of Iran’s supreme leader and escalating armed conflict, has now regained stability at around $66,600. While this marks a daily decline of 0.4% and a weekly drop of 2.8% based on CoinGecko data, it demonstrated far stronger price resilience compared to major U.S. stock index futures such as the Nasdaq, Dow, and S&P 500, which fell more than 1%.
Ryan McMillin, Chief Investment Officer at Merkle Tree Capital, stated that Bitcoin’s initial sell-off was textbook and that immediate buying interest emerged once the conflict appeared manageable. He highlighted that the market’s Fear and Greed Index fell to 11 and Bitcoin futures funding rates plunged to negative 6%. This indicates that short sellers were paying a significant premium to maintain their downward positions, an extreme imbalance not seen since 2022 when Bitcoin traded at $16,000. McMillin emphasized that the market is mechanically rewarding long positions, calling the current period an opportune time to buy.
Prateek Kala, Head of Research at Apollo Crypto, also described the weekend trading flow as highly positive, suggesting that the initial shock had already been priced in. He dismissed the likelihood of further declines, noting that even after the opening of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) futures market, Bitcoin did not follow the sharp drop seen in equities.
However, concerns over potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which is responsible for roughly one-fifth of global oil supply, remain a risk factor. Brent crude surged 8% to 10% toward $80 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) jumped 7% to 8%. Prolonged high oil prices could stoke inflation and weigh on risk assets, but experts assess that the likelihood of a worst-case scenario is low due to supply adjustments by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and stabilization measures by U.S. President Donald Trump. Meanwhile, gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, climbed more than 2% to $5,388 per ounce.
Han Tan, Chief Market Analyst at Bybit Run, explained that while geopolitical risk premiums can temporarily drive flows into safe-haven assets, such premiums tend to dissipate quickly once economic risks are absorbed by the market and conflicts are deemed limited, cautioning investors against excessive anxiety.
Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and no responsibility is taken for investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted solely for informational purposes.