 ▲ Bitcoin Mining |
U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran have begun. As a result, concerns are mounting that if large-scale Bitcoin mining facilities in Iran are destroyed, a temporary shock to the global hash rate will be inevitable, while optimists emphasize confidence in the network’s resilience.
According to cryptocurrency media outlet CryptoPotato on Feb. 28 (local time), claims recently circulated on social media platform X that Iran is conducting a $1 billion Bitcoin (BTC) mining operation and that its facilities could vanish instantly due to military strikes, drawing market attention. Independent analyst Shanaka Anslem Perera analyzed that Iran is leveraging subsidized cheap electricity to mine Bitcoin at an extraordinary cost of $1,320 per BTC, generating returns nearly 50 times higher at the current price level of around $68,000. Perera claimed that Iran operates approximately 700,000 mining machines, consuming 2,000 megawatts of electricity daily, and that the funds serve as a financial source for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
A report by blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis found that Iran’s total virtual asset activity exceeded $7.78 billion in 2025. In particular, funds flowing into addresses linked to the IRGC surged from around $2 billion in 2024 to more than $3 billion last year, showing heightened activity during periods of political crisis. Perera assessed that for Iran, Bitcoin serves as a key tool to bypass SWIFT sanctions and convert energy resources into liquid capital. However, analyst Dasha refuted the claim, arguing that the $1,320 mining cost figure is unrealistic and ignores Iran’s electricity shortages.
Experts are divided on the potential impact of a halt in Iranian mining on the Bitcoin network. Miner ZynxBTC stated that Iran does not account for even 5% of the global hash rate and predicted that the network would continue to operate normally even if that portion went offline. Earlier this year, when extreme cold in Texas forced major mining operations to shut down, causing the hash rate to plunge from 1.133 ZH/s to 690 EH/s, the Bitcoin network continued operating without major disruption.
Perera warned that the physical destruction of the power grid is a fundamentally different issue from voluntary shutdowns. Amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, he analyzed that if airstrikes targeting Iran’s military infrastructure continue for more than a week, electricity production could drop by 30% to 50%. If Iran’s mining share, estimated at 2% to 5% of the global hash rate, converges to zero within days, it could trigger temporary difficulty adjustment disruptions, lengthening block generation times and causing transaction fees to spike sharply. Under the approval of U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration, the United States and Israel began airstrikes on Iran on that day.
Some voices recalling China’s past mining ban express confidence in the network’s self-correcting capacity. Researcher Furkan Yildirim emphasized that when China expelled more than half of the global hash rate in 2021, Bitcoin quickly recovered through miners relocating their operations. Compared to the China case, Yildirim assessed that any impact from a collapse of Iran’s power grid would be negligible and within the margin of error. The Bitcoin network has already endured significant external shocks, and fluctuations in Iran’s hash rate are more likely to result in short-term metric changes rather than a systemic breakdown.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference purposes only and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted solely for informational purposes.*