 ▲ Smoke rises over Tehran, Iran, following an Israeli attack on the 28th (local time) |
The death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei following large-scale U.S. and Israeli airstrikes has placed the Middle East at a critical crossroads. The cryptocurrency market, which had been reeling from fears of an all-out war, hit a dramatic turning point as leading asset Bitcoin (BTC) staged a V-shaped rebound. However, with surging international oil prices and the opening of traditional financial markets looming, tensions are rising ahead of a potential storm.
On the 28th (local time), U.S. President Donald Trump officially announced that Khamenei, the apex of Iran’s theocratic regime, had been eliminated through a swift military operation. U.S. and Israeli forces carried out precision strikes on command facilities of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and nuclear-related infrastructure. In response, Iran launched hundreds of retaliatory strikes targeting major Israeli cities and 14 U.S. military bases in the Middle East. In particular, Iran’s complete blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—through which 20% of global seaborne crude oil shipments pass—has put the global economy on high alert.
Despite the unprecedented geopolitical crisis and fears of escalation into World War III, the weekend cryptocurrency market demonstrated remarkable resilience. According to data from Upbit, South Korea’s largest crypto exchange, on the morning of March 1, Bitcoin—after plunging on initial news of the strikes—rose 1.97% from the previous day to trade at 98,016,000 won, swiftly reclaiming the 98 million won level. Market analysts interpret that expectations of a new phase in the Middle East situation following Khamenei’s death helped calm extreme panic selling.
The altcoin market also showed clear strength, joining the rally. Ethereum (ETH) rose 1.84% to 2,872,000 won, while XRP (Ripple) gained 1.87% to 2,019 won, regaining stability.
However, experts caution that while the crypto market has withstood the initial selling shock, the real test will come with the opening of global traditional financial markets on Monday. If the Strait of Hormuz blockade drives international oil prices sharply higher, global inflation could reignite, potentially erasing expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Such a scenario would exert severe mid- to long-term downward pressure on cryptocurrencies, which are high-beta risk assets sensitive to liquidity conditions.
Should stock and bond markets open with a surge of institutional risk-off selling, Bitcoin—despite its rebound amid thin liquidity—could face a second wave of heavy selling and retreat toward the key $60,000 support level. While some analysts argue that a significant portion of sell orders has already been absorbed, extreme macroeconomic uncertainty calls for strict risk management until a clear trend reversal is confirmed.
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