 ▲ An aerial view of Fujairah Port in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), located near the Strait of Hormuz |
On the 28th (local time), reports that the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran and that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei had been killed signaled potential turbulence in global energy and financial markets.
Concerns are mounting that instability in the Middle East could lead to disruptions in crude oil supply, raising expectations of a sharp surge in international oil prices.
In particular, reports that Iran has moved to block the Strait of Hormuz—through which roughly 20% of the world’s seaborne oil shipments pass—have fueled projections that oil prices could reach $100 per barrel.
Amid prolonged tensions between the United States and Iran, international oil prices have already risen about 20% this year.
Brent crude, the global benchmark, closed up about 2.5% the previous day at $72.48 per barrel, marking its highest closing level since July last year.
With the international oil futures market closed for the weekend, it is difficult to gauge the market’s immediate reaction. However, on a retail trading platform operated by IG Group, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose to as high as $75.33 per barrel, about 12% higher than the previous close.
Earlier in the day, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) told domestic media that it was enforcing a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following the U.S. and Israeli invasion.
Although there has been no official announcement from the Iranian government, local media reported that the Strait of Hormuz was “effectively closed.”
Some vessels reportedly altered their routes after receiving communications—believed to have been transmitted by the Iranian navy—announcing navigation restrictions through the strait.
Bloomberg, citing vessel-tracking data, noted that some ships still appeared to be passing through the strait.
The Strait of Hormuz, located at the entrance to the Persian Gulf, is a critical chokepoint for global energy transport. Reuters reported that some oil companies and major trading firms have suspended shipments of crude oil and fuel through the strait. Any actual disruption to shipping routes is expected to deal a significant shock to oil markets.
Will Hares and Salih Yilmaz of Bloomberg Intelligence projected that Brent crude could rise to around $80 per barrel in the short term.
Some analysts say prices could soar to $100 per barrel if the conflict spreads to neighboring regions.
Barclays’ energy analysis team warned that the market could face a “worst-case scenario” when futures trading resumes on March 2.
“Given the current situation, Brent crude prices could surge to $100 per barrel due to the threat of potential supply disruptions stemming from deteriorating security conditions in the Middle East,” they explained.
 ▲ Bitcoin price |
Meanwhile, cryptocurrencies showed weakness as risk-off sentiment intensified.
Bitcoin at one point fell as much as 3.8% to $63,038 before rebounding to around $65,000 later in the day. Ethereum also plunged 4.5% to $1,836 and was trading near $1,950 as of 3:30 p.m.
Cryptocurrency data provider CoinGecko estimated that approximately $128 billion in market capitalization evaporated from the digital asset market immediately after the airstrikes.
On Hyperliquid, a 24-hour derivatives platform, gold and silver trading was active.
As of 11 a.m., silver recorded more than $500 million in trading volume over the past 24 hours, the highest among commodities. Gold saw about $140 million in trades. U.S. stock index-linked products fell by 1% to 2%.
U.S. President Donald Trump announced on the 28th (local time) that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei had died.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.