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The market is currently pricing in only a 12% probability that Bitcoin (BTC) will reach $150,000 by the end of the year, but some argue that this figure may be excessively low considering historical returns and current investor sentiment.
According to investment publication The Motley Fool on February 28 (local time), traders on the prediction market Polymarket estimate the probability of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by the end of December 2026 at 12%. Given that Bitcoin is currently trading at around $68,000, it would need to surge approximately 120% by year-end to achieve that target, meaning the market is effectively assigning just a “one-in-eight” chance to the scenario.
However, historical data offers a different perspective. From 2012 to 2025, Bitcoin posted triple-digit annual gains in seven different years. It skyrocketed 5,428% in 2013, and more recently climbed 157% in 2023 and 125% in 2024, marking two consecutive years of triple-digit returns. Additionally, during that period, Bitcoin did not record consecutive annual declines, leading to the argument that if 2025 was a bearish year, 2026 could see a rebound.
The derivatives market is also cited as a reference indicator. Prediction market contracts can be viewed as a type of financial derivative, similar to futures and options, reflecting price expectations. In particular, the call options market for BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), which is favored by institutional investors, is considered a gauge of long-term price expectations for Bitcoin. Analysts note that how sophisticated investors assess long-term prices is a key variable.
Current market sentiment is extremely subdued. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index stands at 14 out of 100, remaining in the “extreme fear” zone. After four consecutive months of price declines, investors appear more focused on seeking alternative investments than anticipating new all-time highs. This suppressed sentiment is interpreted as a key factor behind the low 12% probability assigned to Bitcoin reaching $150,000.
The Motley Fool assessed that, considering historical returns and prevailing fear in the market, a 12% probability may be overly conservative. Citing the investment adage “buy when others are fearful,” the publication suggested that 2026 could represent a buying opportunity for Bitcoin. However, it also indicated that whether Bitcoin actually reaches $150,000 will depend on market liquidity and the pace of recovery in investor sentiment.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only and does not assume responsibility for any investment losses incurred based on its content. The information provided should be interpreted solely for informational purposes.*