 ▲ Quantum computer, Bitcoin (BTC), Bitcoin wallet/ChatGPT-generated image |
A strong warning has emerged that if quantum computers succeed in cracking elliptic curve cryptography, the foundation of cryptocurrency security, approximately 7 million bitcoins—including holdings attributed to Satoshi Nakamoto—could face the risk of theft.
According to cryptocurrency media outlet U.Today on February 28 (local time), Charles Guillemet, Chief Technology Officer of hardware wallet manufacturer Ledger, said that “advances in quantum computing pose a potential threat to neutralizing elliptic curve cryptography, the core technology that currently protects blockchain transactions.” Guillemet explained, “With existing technology, decryption is still impossible. However, if quantum capabilities reach a critical threshold, it may become feasible to reverse-engineer private keys from public keys.” He noted that public keys are exposed when users transfer assets or reuse addresses, which has been identified as a security vulnerability.
Guillemet analyzed that around 7 million BTC—representing a significant portion of Bitcoin’s total supply—are directly within the threat range of quantum attacks. This includes approximately 1.1 million BTC believed to be held by Bitcoin’s creator, Satoshi Nakamoto. Early mined coins and older addresses often have public keys openly exposed on-chain, making them particularly vulnerable to reverse-calculation attacks by quantum computers. He emphasized that establishing a proactive migration path well before the technology becomes a reality is essential.
To address these threats, Ledger has been conducting ongoing experiments to introduce Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) technologies. Guillemet presented hash-based signature schemes and lattice-based cryptographic systems as alternatives, noting that software implementation tests are underway within Ledger’s secure element devices. However, hash-based methods suffer from excessively large signature sizes, while the long-term stability of lattice-based approaches has yet to be fully validated. Additionally, computational costs and memory constraints arising from software-only implementations without hardware acceleration remain challenges to be resolved.
Encouragingly, the broader cryptocurrency industry is moving quickly to secure quantum resistance. Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has also been detailing network upgrade plans to prepare for quantum threats, intensifying efforts to strengthen security. Experts stress that although it is difficult to accurately predict when quantum computers will be commercialized, the generational shift in security technologies is a matter of survival rather than choice. Discussions on technical trade-offs and hardware architecture changes that may arise during the transition to quantum-resistant systems are expected to accelerate.
Guillemet predicted that rather than completely destroying cryptocurrencies, quantum technology could serve as a catalyst for the evolution of security technologies. If the blockchain ecosystem addresses its current vulnerabilities and establishes new standards, asset security can be sufficiently ensured even in the quantum era. Investors are advised to monitor the pace of technological advancement and verify that their holdings comply with the latest security recommendations. The quantum defense framework built through collaboration between security firms and core developers is likely to become a key factor determining the long-term trust of the cryptocurrency market.
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