 ▲ Bitcoin (BTC) |
An analysis suggests that as Bitcoin (BTC)’s market structure changes, the dramatic boom-and-bust cycles and crashes of up to 80% seen in the past four-year cycles may no longer be repeated. Fidelity Digital Assets diagnosed that Bitcoin has entered a phase of maturity, securing a different class of buyers and liquidity compared to the past.
In a report, Fidelity research analyst Zack Wainwright noted that Bitcoin’s market capitalization reached an all-time high of approximately $2.5 trillion in October 2025. He analyzed that volatility actually showed a tendency to decline even near the peak when Bitcoin prices surpassed $126,000. This suggests that as the market size expands, price movements are unfolding differently from previous cycles.
Changes in Bitcoin’s demand structure were also highlighted as an important variable. Fidelity reported that 49 publicly listed companies holding more than 1,000 BTC collectively own over 1 million BTC, accounting for more than 5% of the total circulating supply. In addition, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs held approximately 1.3 million BTC as of the end of January 2026, representing 6.4% of the circulating supply. With public companies and ETFs together accounting for about 12% of supply, the market’s support base has become significantly more robust.
The MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio, a key technical indicator, has also maintained a stable trend. In past bull markets, MVRV surged to four to six times the realized value, forming bubble conditions, but in this cycle it has remained around twice the realized value. Fidelity explained that if Bitcoin had reached four times its realized value, its market capitalization would have climbed to $4.5 trillion, with a per-coin price of approximately $225,000.
Fidelity’s newly introduced “return-to-volatility ratio” further demonstrates Bitcoin’s growing stability. Since late 2023, this ratio has consistently remained around 0.015, above the stability benchmark of 0.01. This marks the longest period of heightened stability in Bitcoin’s history, and the ratio has held above the baseline despite the recent price decline below $70,000.
With increased institutional participation and expanded liquidity, the Bitcoin market is more likely to undergo gradual and structured price adjustments rather than the sharp collapses seen in the past. As Bitcoin evolves beyond a purely speculative asset into a mature financial asset, investors are focusing less on fears of extreme downturns and more on its long-term value appreciation.
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