 ▲ Altcoin / ChatGPT-generated image |
As the cryptocurrency market’s recovery remains unstable in late February 2026, technical analysis suggests that an altcoin season could begin in earnest in March. Although the altcoin market continues to struggle overall, historical patterns and improving indicators are signaling a potential new phase.
According to BeInCrypto, an analysis of data from on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant found that only 5% of altcoins listed on Binance are trading above their 200-day simple moving average (200-day SMA). This means that 95% of altcoins remain below their long-term moving averages, clearly illustrating the severe downturn in the current altcoin market.
However, past cases suggest that such extreme contractions in this indicator have often marked the beginning of rebounds. Over the past two years, periods when this figure stayed below 15% did not exceed five months, and each time a strong rebound followed without exception. Considering that the decline, which began in October last year, has now entered its fifth month, demand from investors drawn by attractive prices is likely to emerge in March.
Technical analyst Blade identified positive reversal signals on the OTHERS/BTC chart. This chart compares the total market capitalization of altcoins, excluding Bitcoin (BTC), to Bitcoin itself. Blade explained that on the monthly chart, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) crossed above the signal line, forming a green histogram for the first time since early 2024. He predicted that, with momentum shifting and structural compression completed, the largest altcoin season in history may be approaching.
Nevertheless, caution still lingers in the market. The ratio of altcoin trading volume to Bitcoin on centralized exchanges (CEX) has fallen to 2.2, the lowest level in the past year. Compared to the peak of 3.5 recorded at one point in 2025, capital remains concentrated in Bitcoin, and a full-scale rotation into altcoins has yet to materialize. The current Altcoin Season Index stands at 43 points, well below the 75-point threshold that confirms an altcoin season.
BeInCrypto noted that the altcoin market has recorded net selling pressure for 13 consecutive months, suggesting that even if an altcoin season begins, the rally is likely to be selective, focusing on fundamentally strong projects. A sustained inflow of capital and a clear shift of funds from Bitcoin to altcoins will be necessary to support a broad market recovery.
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