 ▲ Bitcoin (BTC) |
Bitcoin (BTC) has been blocked by strong resistance near the $70,000 level, extending its decline for a fifth consecutive month. Amid this trend, cautious analysis suggests that the current bearish phase could continue into March.
According to cryptocurrency media outlet Cointelegraph on February 28 (local time), Bitcoin is currently battling three key resistance levels. After falling 14% in February and marking its first streak of five consecutive monthly losses since late 2018, Bitcoin must break through major resistance zones in March to end the bear market.
From a technical analysis perspective, three barriers are preventing a rebound: the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $68,330, the previous all-time high of $69,000 set in 2021, and the psychological threshold of $70,000. Analyst Captain Faibik stated that Bitcoin needs to close above the 200-week EMA on a weekly basis to maintain momentum. “If it breaks above the 200-week EMA, a rebound toward $80,000 could follow soon,” he said, adding that “March could become a bullish month.”
A recovery scenario based on historical precedent is also drawing attention. Analyst Alex noted that after posting five consecutive monthly declines in 2018 and 2019, Bitcoin subsequently recorded five strong bullish candles, with its price nearly quadrupling. After plunging 57% from August 2018 to January 2019, Bitcoin surged 317% over the next five months, soaring from $3,329 to $13,880. If history repeats itself, a full-fledged trend reversal could begin in April, when selling pressure is exhausted.
Some analysts argue that for Bitcoin to declare a true end to the bear market, it must surpass $74,500—the cost basis of holders who have held for 18 to 24 months. The market is currently absorbing supply near major resistance levels while building momentum. Unless Bitcoin confirms a close above $70,000, volatility is expected to continue between resistance and support levels for the time being.
Bitcoin now stands at a critical crossroads, displaying its rarest bearish pattern since 2018. Whether it can reclaim the 200-week EMA in March is expected to be the key indicator determining the market’s direction. Global investors are closely watching to see whether the explosive rebound patterns of the past will reemerge or whether resistance at $70,000 will prolong the downturn.
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