 ▲ XRP © |
Amid a broader rebound in the cryptocurrency market, XRP has climbed above $1.43 and is showing a modest recovery. However, futures open interest has plunged to its lowest level in a year, and cooling retail investor sentiment is hampering the prospects of a full-fledged rally.
According to investment media outlet FXStreet on February 26 (local time), XRP fell to $1.31 on Tuesday amid major changes in U.S. tariff policy but has since stabilized above $1.43. The XRP spot ETF, a gauge of institutional interest, recorded net inflows for two consecutive days, with $3.09 million added on Wednesday. Bitwise led the inflows with $2.3 million, followed by Franklin Templeton with $796,000. Although cumulative inflows have reached $1.24 billion and total net assets stand at $1.06 billion, this remains well below the January peak of $1.65 billion.
While institutional inflows appear somewhat stagnant, retail demand is even weaker. XRP futures open interest has steadily declined to $2.24 billion, the lowest level since January 2025, when prices were moving sideways between $1.40 and $1.50. This contrasts sharply with last July, when open interest surged to $10.94 billion as XRP hit its all-time high of $3.66. The weakness in the derivatives market is acting as a limiting factor on further gains in the short to mid term.
Technical indicators also reflect the fragile rebound momentum. On the daily chart, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has crossed above the signal line but remains below the zero line, suggesting that the recovery lacks strength. At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 44 and has failed to break above the midpoint, reinforcing that buying pressure remains subdued within a broader downtrend.
XRP is currently attempting to solidify gains above $1.43, targeting a breakout above the $1.54 level, which acted as resistance on February 6. If surpassed, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.63 and the descending trendline from the $3.66 peak are expected to serve as strong supply resistance zones limiting further upside.
A decisive daily close above $1.54 would ease the prevailing bearish bias and open the door to a move toward the $1.63 moving average. Conversely, if upward momentum falters, $1.40 will serve as the first line of defense, followed by potential successive corrections toward this week’s low of $1.31 and the October low of $1.25, warranting heightened caution from investors.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only and the publisher is not responsible for any losses resulting from investment decisions based on this content. The information herein is intended solely for informational purposes.*