 ▲ Solana (SOL) |
Solana (SOL) surged more than 13% in a single day, approaching the $90 level, but analysts say signs of overheating are emerging at the same time.
According to CoinMarketCap on February 25 (local time), Solana traded at $89.75, up 13.97% over the past 24 hours. Compared with Bitcoin (BTC), which rose 7.19%, and Ethereum (ETH), which gained 11.38% during the same period, Solana posted relatively stronger gains. The sharp rally is being interpreted as a high-intensity technical breakout beyond a simple broad market rebound.
The primary driver was a clear technical breakout. Solana decisively surpassed its recent swing high of $89.62, while trading volume jumped 39.95%. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) soared to 90.2, entering extreme overbought territory. The price is trading above key moving averages, including the 7-day simple moving average at $87.13, reinforcing the short-term uptrend. However, an RSI above 90 also signals an elevated risk of a short-term correction.
Market sentiment also supported the rally. The social net sentiment score stood at 4.78 out of 10, reflecting a bullish atmosphere, and some analysts described the pattern as a “classic Wyckoff accumulation bottom.” Meanwhile, the Altcoin Season Index rose 17.24% over the past week to 34, indicating capital rotation from major coins into select altcoins. Amid the simultaneous rise of Bitcoin and Ethereum, Solana appears to have benefited from its higher beta exposure.
The short-term price target is set at $98.02, corresponding to the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level. Key support lies at $84.42, the 38.2% retracement level. Holding this range could open the door for further upside attempts, but a daily close below it may trigger a broader pullback toward the $78–$81 range. Given that sharp rallies in overbought territory often invite profit-taking, caution over heightened volatility is warranted.
Overall, the current structure maintains strong upward momentum but appears overheated in the short term. If Bitcoin holds steadily above $69,000, the altcoin rally could continue. Conversely, if the market leader falters, Solana may also test support near $84. While the uptrend remains intact, analysts emphasize that this is a zone requiring careful risk management.
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