 ▲ Bitcoin (BTC), investors, plunge / AI-generated image © |
Bitcoin (BTC) is threatening the $65,000 level as Trump-driven tariff shocks coincide with massive sell-offs by whales. With investors turning their attention to support zones between $62,000 and $58,000, market tension is reaching a peak over where the prolonged bear market may ultimately end.
According to investment outlet Trading News on February 23 (local time), Bitcoin briefly broke down into the $64,200–$64,400 range over the past 24 hours before now moving sideways between $65,800 and $66,100. After plunging nearly 50% from its peak of $126,200, Bitcoin has closed six consecutive weeks in the red and fallen below its 100-week moving average, signaling a full-fledged downturn rather than a simple correction.
On-chain data points to clear selling pressure from large investors. The exchange whale ratio has surged to 0.64, its highest level since 2015, while the average deposit size is the largest since June 2022. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded cumulative outflows exceeding $6 billion recently, with major hedge funds aggressively reducing exposure to lock in profits and mitigate risk. In contrast, major insider-type capital such as Mubadala Investment Company and Strategy is stepping in to buy at lower levels, highlighting a stark divergence in outlook.
Macroeconomic pressure has intensified after U.S. President Donald Trump abruptly imposed a 15% global tariff. The move increases trade costs and inflation risks, dampening expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Amid these macro shocks, Bitcoin—once considered an inflation hedge—has faltered, while gold and silver have surged to record highs, reinforcing their status as true safe-haven assets. Major altcoins including Ethereum (ETH) and XRP have also declined, signaling a rising risk premium across the cryptocurrency market.
Derivatives markets and technical indicators further support the bleak outlook. Bitcoin futures open interest has shrunk to around $40 billion, down more than 50% from its peak, heightening the risk of sharp price swings due to liquidity gaps. On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 34, nearing oversold territory, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) both indicate strong bearish momentum, forming a classic bearish pennant pattern.
In the short term, Bitcoin is expected to trade within a wide range between $62,000 and $68,000. If the $62,000 support level breaks, prices could fall through $58,000 and, in the worst-case scenario, plunge vertically to $50,000. To reverse the trend, tariff concerns must ease and Bitcoin must decisively reclaim the $70,000 level, prompting experts to advise maintaining a defensive stance rather than rushing into new positions.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only and we are not responsible for any investment losses resulting from it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*