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Amid a historic market crash, XRP (Ripple) investors have capitulated in a wave of panic-driven selloffs, but a claim is emerging that this dreadful capitulation signal may actually be a powerful bullish indicator pointing to an explosive rally of more than 100%, shaking the market.
According to cryptocurrency outlet Finbold on February 23 (local time), XRP recently recorded its largest on-chain realized loss surge in over three years since November 2022, flashing what has historically been an extremely rare bullish signal. Data from Santiment shows that during a similar capitulation event 39 months ago, approximately $1.93 billion in losses were realized. Following that event, XRP staged a dramatic comeback, soaring an astonishing 114% over the next eight months.
Realized losses occur when investors sell assets at prices lower than their purchase cost, typically reflecting fear-driven exits during steep market downturns. While such losses appear overwhelmingly negative on the surface, five years of Santiment data history indicate that these spikes have often acted as lagging indicators near market bottoms, signaling seller exhaustion, easing downward pressure, and paving the way for price recovery.
XRP, currently mired in a prolonged correction from its peak, is experiencing massive realized losses that suggest recent price damage may already be largely absorbed by the market. Although an immediate rebound cannot be guaranteed, the probability of a mid-term recovery has increased significantly. If XRP were to replicate its post-2022 trajectory and stage a 100% rally from current levels, it could target the $2.70 to $2.80 range in the coming months. However, any recovery scenario inevitably depends heavily on the trajectory of Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader macro trend of the digital asset market.
At present, XRP is trading under pressure at around $1.39, down more than 2% over the past 24 hours and 6.6% on a weekly basis. Technically, it remains firmly in a bearish structure, trading well below both the 50-day simple moving average at $1.77 and the 200-day simple moving average at $2.30, weighed down by sustained medium- to long-term downward momentum.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 39.39, lingering near the lower boundary of the neutral zone. While it has not yet entered fully oversold territory, it clearly reflects weakening bullish momentum and persistent selling pressure. Although trading below key simple moving averages and a depressed RSI confirm a technically fragile market environment, they also paradoxically suggest that the market may be approaching a critical point where a relief rally could erupt if selling pressure finally exhausts itself.
Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only and the publisher is not responsible for any investment losses incurred based on this information. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.