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Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at a 20% discount to its “fair value,” and analysis suggests that if the threat of quantum computing becomes a reality, the discount rate could widen to 60% by 2028.
According to cryptocurrency media outlet Bitcoinist on February 21 (local time), Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, released a study introducing a “Quantum Discount Factor” that reflects quantum computing risks. He warned that if quantum computers were to compromise the cryptography of certain legacy wallets, Bitcoin’s core value propositions—“trust the code” and the concept of “hard money”—could be undermined. The study also presented a scenario in which up to 30% of the total supply, including coins with exposed public keys, could be stolen or liquidated.
The exact timing of a potential quantum attack, often referred to as “Q-Day,” remains uncertain. However, aggregated expert estimates suggest a 60% probability of occurrence by 2030 and approximately 80% by 2031. All forecasts indicate the possibility of such an event occurring before 2035. Edwards estimated that upgrading the Bitcoin network to a quantum-resistant structure would realistically take about two years—optimistically one year, but more commonly closer to three years.
By combining these factors, the study calculated a quantum discount factor of 20% for 2026. This implies that Bitcoin’s current fair value should be considered 20% lower to account for quantum risk. Without a network-level response, the discount rate could approach 40% in 2027, expand to 60% in 2028, and reach as high as 75% by 2029.
The report emphasized that if quantum computing directly threatens Bitcoin’s cryptographic framework, market participants would have little choice but to rationally price in the associated risks. This suggests that beyond a technical debate, quantum computing could serve as a structural variable requiring changes to asset valuation models.
Bitcoin is currently trading at around $68,200, down 2.7% over the past seven days. The study noted that regardless of short-term price fluctuations, whether Bitcoin implements quantum-resistant upgrades could become a key factor determining its long-term value premium.
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