 ▲ Bitcoin (BTC) plunge / ChatGPT-generated image © |
A chilling warning is freezing the market, suggesting that if the leading cryptocurrency fails to defend its psychological support level, a brutal crypto winter could arrive, wiping out as much as 84% from its peak.
According to investment media outlet FXLeaders on Feb. 20 (local time), renowned gold advocate and economist Peter Schiff predicted that if Bitcoin (BTC) loses the $50,000 support level, it could plunge vertically to $20,000. This would mark an arithmetic decline of 84% from its all-time high of $126,000 reached in October 2025. If that support collapses, he warned, panic selling by investors could trigger an uncontrollable market downturn.
At the center of this pessimism is the severe potential loss pressure facing institutional investors that currently underpin the market. Schiff highlighted the risks confronting so-called long-term holders, specifically pointing to Strategy. Considering their average purchase price is around $75,000, a drop to $50,000 would trap one of the world’s largest corporate holders in astronomical unrealized losses. He cautioned that even if institutions attempt a mass exit during a price collapse, the market’s emergency exits would be far too narrow.
Indeed, the institutional shield has already begun to crack. According to data analytics platform SoSoValue, the spot Bitcoin ETF market recorded net outflows for three consecutive days, with $165.76 million withdrawn. BlackRock led the outflows with $164.06 million, while Fidelity saw $49 million exit. Amid economic slowdown and inflation concerns, capital is clearly rotating back into traditional safe-haven assets such as gold, which has risen 64% over the past year.
Technical indicators also reflect a grim reality of evaporating demand. Bitcoin is struggling to hold the $67,000 level, but a massive sell wall between $70,000 and $80,000 continues to suppress rebounds. With the primary support at $60,000 under threat, a break below the on-chain realized price of $54,900 would increase the likelihood that Schiff’s $50,000 disaster scenario becomes the base case.
Compounding matters, geopolitical factors such as fears of a global trade war are fueling dollar strength and intensifying selling pressure on risk assets. Experts warn that the current market environment calls for a defensive strategy of selling into rallies rather than buying the dip. They added that if Bitcoin fails to reclaim the true market average price of $79,000 by the end of the first quarter, the probability of a سقوط to $50,000 could surge above 65%.
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