 ▲ Bitcoin (BTC) |
As Bitcoin (BTC) continues its fragile sideways movement around the $68,000 level, investor sentiment has plunged into “extreme fear,” fueling pessimism that prices could fall to the $50,000 range in the short term. At the same time, conflicting analyses suggest that long-term bullish prospects remain intact, supported by solid institutional backing, adding to market uncertainty.
According to investment outlet FXStreet on February 19 (local time), the prevailing market view is that the likelihood of Bitcoin surpassing $100,000 in February is virtually zero. Prediction market Kalshi estimated the probability at just 7%, while 14 out of 15 moving average indicators on TradingView issued “sell” signals. Notably, a “bear pennant” pattern is forming on the charts, which, if confirmed, could push prices down to $55,000.
Weakening institutional demand—previously a key driver of the bull market—is also becoming evident. In January alone, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $1.6 billion. In the options market, the share of put options expiring at the end of February with strike prices between $50,000 and $60,000 has surged, indicating growing bearish bets. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to 10 on the 17th, signaling extreme fear. However, analysts at Matrixport cautioned that despite signs of seller exhaustion, the possibility of further short-term declines remains open.
Experts and financial institutions are rapidly lowering their short-term price targets. Standard Chartered, previously optimistic, reduced its end-2026 target from $150,000 to $100,000, citing ETF outflows and macroeconomic slowdown, and warned that prices could drop to $50,000 beforehand. Robin Singh, CEO of Koinly, also analyzed that if risk appetite weakens further, the key support level at $60,000 could break, triggering a sharp fall into the $50,000 range.
Nevertheless, amid deep short-term pessimism, hope persists from a long-term perspective. Matt Hougan noted that the current market is failing to reflect positive developments in the crypto space and predicted that any recovery would form a gradual rounded bottom rather than a sharp V-shaped rebound. The possibility of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is also being cited as a catalyst that could enhance Bitcoin’s appeal in the second half of the year.
Bernstein analysts, in particular, maintain that the recent downturn represents one of the mildest bear markets in Bitcoin’s history and reaffirmed their $150,000 price target for the end of 2026. They emphasized that strong institutional support—including a crypto-friendly U.S. president, the establishment of spot ETFs, and increasing corporate adoption—makes this cycle fundamentally different from past bear markets. Bitcoin is currently trading near $68,000 and appears poised to test the critical $60,000 support level, a crossroads between a shallow correction and a deeper downturn.
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