 ▲ Bitcoin (BTC) plunge / ChatGPT-generated image |
Bitcoin (BTC) has turned downward under heavy selling pressure despite astronomical capital inflows, prompting a bleak outlook that an additional سقوط to the $55,000 level may be inevitable before a genuine rebound can occur.
According to crypto media outlet BeInCrypto on February 18 (local time), Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, declared that the Bitcoin market has clearly entered a bearish cycle and warned that prices could retreat to the realized price level of $55,000 before a full-fledged recovery begins. Ju analyzed that despite hundreds of billions of dollars in new capital flowing into the market recently, the stagnation or decline in total market capitalization is decisive evidence that overwhelming selling pressure is outpacing fresh demand.
Ju presented two possible recovery scenarios for the market. The first involves prices falling to around $55,000—the average purchase price of all holders—to confirm a bottom before gaining new upward momentum. The second envisions a prolonged period of sideways movement within a range of $60,000 to $70,000 for several months, allowing energy to build. In either case, considering past deep corrections, it is expected to take at least three months for investor sentiment to recover, and he advised against mistaking short-term rebounds for the beginning of a bull market.
Behind the recent downturn lies large-scale position unwinding by institutional investors. Ju diagnosed that as Bitcoin’s volatility has declined, institutions that entered the market seeking volatility arbitrage are shifting funds to more attractive assets such as the Nasdaq or gold. In particular, declining open interest among institutions on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) signals a significant outflow of capital, and the pattern of large volumes hitting the market at once suggests the likelihood of forced liquidations or intentional large-scale sell-offs by institutions.
The outlook for the altcoin market is even more pessimistic. Ju pointed out that although altcoin trading volumes appeared solid throughout 2024, actual new capital inflows were limited to a small number of tokens with expectations of exchange-traded fund (ETF) launches. Most altcoins have failed to surpass their previous highs and instead show a “passing the bomb” pattern in which funds merely rotate among existing investors. The era when the entire market could surge on the back of sensational narratives alone has come to an end, he assessed.
Ultimately, the cryptocurrency market appears set to endure a prolonged period of hardship amid slowing institutional demand and the disappearance of new capital inflows. Ju added that it will take considerable time for damaged investor sentiment to heal, and that the short-term upside potential for altcoins is extremely limited. Whether Bitcoin can confirm $55,000 as its final line of defense before embarking on a truly new upward cycle will be the key point to watch in the coming market developments.
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