 ▲ Stellar Lumens (XLM) © |
Stellar (XLM) is continuing a tense tug-of-war near the $0.170 level as it remains weighed down by heavy bearish bets in the derivatives market, but analysis suggests a dramatic rebound rally may be imminent as technical indicators point to weakening selling pressure.
According to investment media outlet FXStreet on February 17 (local time), Stellar failed to strongly break above a key resistance level—the descending trendline—last Sunday and was trading weakly near $0.168 as of Tuesday.
Indicators from the derivatives market support a clear bearish sentiment. CoinGlass data shows the funding rate turned negative at -0.0050% as of Tuesday, indicating that more traders are anticipating further declines, with short positions paying fees to long positions. The long-to-short ratio also came in at 0.96, signaling that traders betting on a price drop currently hold the upper hand.
On the other hand, on-chain data is flashing early bullish signals amid a broadly neutral environment. According to CryptoQuant, activity across the spot and futures markets remains balanced, reflecting intense caution among traders. However, large orders detected from major whales in the futures market suggest cautious optimism regarding future price movements.
Technical indicators on the chart also lend support to a potential rebound. On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has rebounded from oversold territory last week to 42 and is gradually climbing toward the neutral level of 50, indicating that bearish momentum is fading. Additionally, a bullish crossover occurred on the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator last Saturday, further reinforcing the recovery scenario.
If Stellar manages to break above the descending trendline and close above it, the rally could accelerate toward $0.194, where the 50-day exponential moving average is located. However, if it fails to overcome the current correction phase and succumbs again to downward pressure, there remains a risk of falling to $0.136, the low recorded on February 6.
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