 ▲ BlackRock, XRP (Ripple) © |
Amid stabilizing U.S. inflation and continued strong inflows into XRP spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), XRP (Ripple) has broken its five-week downtrend and reclaimed the $1.5 level, laying the groundwork for a mid- to long-term rally.
According to investment media outlet FXEmpire on February 15 (local time), improved risk appetite followed the release of softer-than-expected U.S. January Consumer Price Index (CPI) data this week, alongside growing bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts, which provided a tailwind across markets. Optimism that the U.S. crypto Market Structure Bill will make progress in Congress further bolstered investor sentiment toward XRP.
Amid this easing regulatory environment, XRP spot ETFs recorded net inflows for two consecutive weeks, demonstrating notable institutional demand. U.S. Representative Hugh Blackwell of North Carolina mentioned speculation that BlackRock is pressing the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for spot ETF approval this week. He projected that if the iShares XRP Trust is launched, it could replicate the massive capital inflows seen with the iShares Bitcoin Trust, potentially marking the beginning of a powerful bullish wave.
Recent legislative developments in Washington have also acted as positive catalysts. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong attended a recent White House meeting and assessed that progress is being made to resolve the stablecoin yield stalemate between traditional finance (TradFi) and decentralized finance (DeFi), creating a win-win scenario for both banks and the crypto industry. Referring to the GENIUS stablecoin regulatory bill under review, he emphasized that regulatory improvements enabling retail traders to earn stablecoin rewards instead of minimal bank deposit interest could be key to driving explosive demand across the broader ecosystem, including XRP.
From a technical perspective, although XRP has reclaimed $1.5, it remains below its 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), indicating lingering short-term bearish momentum. To confirm a trend reversal, bulls must firmly defend the $1.5 support level and break above the 50-day EMA resistance at $1.7448. Failure to do so and a breakdown below the descending trendline could make $1.0 the critical support level for maintaining the broader trend.
However, barring unexpected macroeconomic shocks such as a liquidity crisis triggered by the unwinding of the yen carry trade following a Bank of Japan rate hike or delays in passing the U.S. crypto Market Structure Bill, XRP’s mid- to long-term outlook remains highly promising. Analysts predict that strong demand could push XRP to $2.5 within four to eight weeks. If legislative procedures conclude smoothly, the price could reach $3.0 within 12 weeks and potentially surpass its all-time high of $3.66 within a year, with sufficient momentum to surge toward $5.
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