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Bitcoin (BTC) has moved away from its past explosive peak formation patterns and entered an undervalued zone, beginning a structural reorganization phase aimed at forming a new market bottom in 2026.
According to cryptocurrency-focused outlet Bitcoinist on February 14 (local time), Bitcoin continues a sluggish battle below the $70,000 level and faces strong selling pressure despite repeated rebound attempts. Market analyst Sebastian Villafuerte assessed that the current volatility and contraction in liquidity are forcing both retail and institutional investors into a defensive stance. In particular, after reaching an all-time high in October 2025, the market has continued its downward trend for about four months, gradually approaching undervalued territory from an on-chain valuation perspective.
A report from on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant shows that Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio is currently hovering around 1.1. Historically, when the MVRV ratio falls below 1, it is considered an undervalued state where the market price is lower than the overall average purchase price. The current figure is nearing this threshold. Villafuerte explained that although the indicator has not yet fallen below 1, downside risks are becoming increasingly compressed, suggesting that accumulation opportunities are forming from a long-term perspective.
The most notable feature of this cycle is that, unlike previous bull markets, the correction began without Bitcoin entering a clear overheating phase. In the past, prices surged vertically into extreme overbought conditions before a sharp collapse followed. This time, however, the adjustment has progressed without such signals. Due to this structural difference, the current downturn is likely to differ from the typical historical capitulation pattern, making direct comparisons more challenging.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin remains trapped in a downtrend that began near its late 2025 peak between $120,000 and $125,000. The recent breakdown of the $70,000 support level has strengthened the bearish structure, with prices now trading below the 50-week and 100-week moving averages. Notably, the sharp decline into the mid-$60,000 range was accompanied by a surge in trading volume, supporting the view that forced liquidations or aggressive spot selling occurred beyond simple profit-taking.
The Bitcoin market is now set to test the strong psychological support level of $60,000. If selling pressure does not subside, the possibility of further declines below that level remains open. For a meaningful recovery to take shape, Bitcoin must first reclaim the $70,000 zone and establish itself above key moving averages. Villafuerte projected that amid uncertain macroeconomic liquidity conditions, volatility is likely to persist until the market finds a clear equilibrium.
Bitcoin’s current correction represents a market reset process on a different level from past bubble collapses, offering long-term investors an optimal window with an attractive risk-to-reward ratio. Even as the downward trend continues, on-chain data indicate that downside pressure is gradually reaching its limits, implying that a solid foundation is being laid for the next bull cycle. Rather than reacting emotionally to short-term price swings, investors should calmly analyze structural market changes and signals of undervaluation to prepare for the new trend ahead.
Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only and we are not responsible for any investment losses incurred based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.