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Warnings are resurfacing that Bitcoin (BTC) could fall to $49,000 as a whale investor known as a “Trump insider” has offloaded 5,000 BTC.
According to crypto-focused outlet CoinGape on Feb. 14 (local time), Bitcoin regained the $70,000 level that day but remains down 27.9% over the past month. CoinMarketCap’s Fear & Greed Index stood at 11, indicating “Extreme Fear.” Even as the market attempts a rebound, debate continues over the possibility of further downside.
Analyst Colin Talks Crypto assessed that Bitcoin has been in a bear market phase for more than four months since Oct. 6, 2025. Citing historical patterns, he said that “from peak to bottom typically takes about a year,” estimating that the current cycle is about 35% complete. He suggested a potential bottom range between $32,000 and $60,000, with a single best estimate of $49,000.
Other analysts also pointed out that the broader macro downtrend remains intact. Crypto expert Scient referenced 2019 and 2022, explaining that previous bear markets only ended once Bitcoin broke out of its macro bearish structure. He emphasized that no clear bullish reversal signal has yet been identified in the current price action. The Great Martis likewise noted that momentum is rapidly weakening, raising the possibility of prolonged consolidation or additional declines following a short-term rebound.
On-chain indicators are also fueling volatility. According to Lookonchain, Garrett Zhen sold 5,000 BTC worth approximately $348.82 million. He was also found to have withdrawn $53.12 million worth of Tether from Binance. Even after the sale, he still holds more than 30,000 BTC, valued at about $2.09 billion. Whale Alert data further revealed that another large wallet transferred 1,651 BTC, worth around $113.9 million, to Binance.
Exchange netflow trends have also shifted sharply. On Feb. 3, net inflows of roughly $450 million pushed Bitcoin down from the $65,000 range to $68,000. However, from Feb. 6 to 7, net outflows exceeding $250 million helped stabilize prices. Since Feb. 8, both net inflows and outflows have decreased, suggesting that selling pressure has somewhat eased. Nevertheless, as many analysts believe the bearish cycle is still underway, further confirmation is needed to determine whether the recovery above $70,000 marks a true trend reversal.
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