 ▲ Bitcoin plunges / ChatGPT-generated image © |
Bitcoin (BTC) has managed an intraday rebound from a low of $60,000 to around $69,000, offering temporary relief to the market. However, major technical indicators still point firmly to a bear market, prompting growing warnings against prematurely calling a bottom.
According to crypto outlet Decrypt on February 13 (local time), Bitcoin rose 3.69% over the past 24 hours to trade near $69,321. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization also increased 4.3% to $2.36 trillion, but the gain remains modest compared to the $2 trillion wiped out in recent weeks. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, a measure of market sentiment, recorded a near-record low of 8, indicating that the broader market remains trapped in extreme fear.
Investors’ pessimistic outlook is evident across the market. On decentralized prediction platform Myriad, the probability that Bitcoin will fall to $55,000 before recovering to $84,000 stands at 55%. Multinational bank Standard Chartered also sharply lowered its price target from $300,000 to $100,000, warning that a plunge to $50,000 is possible. Adding to the pressure, $410 million flowed out of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) the previous day, intensifying selling pressure.
Technical downside pressure is even clearer on the daily chart. The Average Directional Index (ADX), which measures trend strength, stands at 51.3, confirming a strong downward trend, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in bearish territory at 35.0. Moreover, the short-term 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) remains below the long-term 200-day EMA, forming a classic bearish structure and raising concerns that the current rebound may be nothing more than a temporary dead cat bounce.
Experts advise that short-term traders may use four-hour chart indicators to target a brief rebound between $70,000 and $72,000, but swing traders and long-term investors should align with the strong downward momentum visible on the daily chart. For Bitcoin to shift into a genuine uptrend, consecutive closes above $80,000 are necessary, and the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) release is expected to be a critical factor in determining short-term direction.
Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only and the publisher is not responsible for any investment losses incurred based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.