 ▲ Ripple (XRP) |
Key on-chain indicators for XRP (Ripple) have deteriorated to levels not seen since the 2022 bear market, fueling panic selling among investors. As metrics reflecting investor profitability move into loss territory, analysts note emerging signs of market-wide capitulation.
According to cryptocurrency media outlet CCN on February 10 (local time), citing Glassnode data, XRP’s SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) plunged from 1.16 on July 1, 2025, to 0.96 in early February 2026. A SOPR reading below 1 indicates that investors are, on average, selling coins below their acquisition cost and realizing losses, mirroring selling sentiment seen during the 2022 downturn.
Currently, XRP’s realized price, which represents the average purchase price, stands at $1.48, while the market price hovers around $1.44, leaving most holders in the red. Volatility has increased, with XRP dropping 16% in a single day from $1.65 on January 31 to $1.29 on February 5. Coupled with Bitcoin (BTC) weakness, approximately $46 million in derivatives liquidations amplified the decline.
Large inflows to exchanges are also acting as potential selling pressure. Typically, coin transfers to exchanges are interpreted as preparatory steps for selling, and this has coincided with Ripple’s regular monthly release of 1 billion coins from escrow, further heightening market anxiety. Historically, February has been a bearish month for XRP, averaging a 5% decline, and this year has followed the pattern with losses already exceeding 6%.
Price outlooks remain divided between optimism and caution. Standard Chartered forecast the possibility of XRP reaching $8 by year-end, citing regulatory clarity and institutional adoption. AI models predict a consolidation range between $1.40 and $1.90 during February, followed by a rise toward $6 to $8 by the end of the year. Changelly similarly projected a steady upward trend surpassing $3.
Conversely, Ripple Chief Technology Officer David Schwartz struck a cautious tone, dismissing claims of XRP reaching $50 or $100 in the near term. He argued that such extreme valuations would require unprecedented changes in liquidity and adoption, emphasizing that XRP’s price will be driven not by Ripple’s holdings or sales but by its payment utility and broader cryptocurrency market trends.
Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only and does not assume responsibility for any investment losses incurred based on its content. The information should be interpreted solely for informational purposes.