 ▲ Bitcoin (BTC) / ChatGPT-generated image |
Bitcoin (BTC) has plunged more than 40% from its all-time high, surrendering the psychological threshold of $75,000. However, many market experts believe that the current downturn is not merely a simple correction but rather the opening chapter of a full-fledged cryptocurrency winter.
Tony Edward, host of the cryptocurrency-focused YouTube channel Think Crypto, analyzed Bitcoin’s historic decline in an interview with Yahoo Finance on February 7 (local time). Edward noted that Bitcoin has fallen more than 40% from its peak of $126,000 recorded last October, marking its lowest level in 10 months. In particular, the collapse of the $75,000 level—previously a strong support where the 2024 high and the 2025 low converged—has driven market fear to extremes.
Cryptocurrency analysts are warning that Bitcoin could decline further toward the $57,000 to $58,000 range, which corresponds to the 200-week moving average on the weekly chart. 10X Research has issued a pessimistic outlook, suggesting that in the worst-case scenario, Bitcoin could retreat to around $40,000, potentially between mid-June and mid-July. On the other hand, Fundstrat strategist Sean Farrell said that the current sell-off may be an irrational overreaction and is cautiously looking for opportunities to accumulate positions gradually.
The anticipated effects of crypto-friendly legislation and regulatory easing following Donald Trump’s election as U.S. president are widely believed to have already been priced into the market. In particular, if Kevin Warsh, a leading candidate for the next chair of the Federal Reserve System, were to adopt a hawkish stance focused on curbing inflation, a slowdown in monetary supply growth could work against Bitcoin. Additionally, the shift of investment capital toward traditional safe-haven assets such as gold and silver has reduced Bitcoin’s relative appeal, further contributing to the decline.
Changes in market structure are also becoming evident. The old formula of an “altcoin season,” in which all altcoins surged in tandem with Bitcoin, no longer holds. Instead, polarization is intensifying, with only assets that have exchange-traded funds (ETFs) or tangible utility managing to survive. Bitcoin spot ETFs initially attracted tens of billions of dollars and appeared to settle in successfully, but recently, profit-taking by institutional investors has increased downward pressure. Companies such as Strategy are attempting to form a support base by stockpiling large amounts of Bitcoin, but these efforts alone have been insufficient to reverse the market’s broader downtrend.
The cryptocurrency market now requires genuine technological innovation and new catalysts that go beyond the simple Web 3.0 narrative. While experts maintain that the long-term vision of Bitcoin reaching $1 million within the next decade remains valid, painful adjustments and prolonged consolidation are expected in the near term. Investors should closely monitor whether the $55,000 support level holds and calmly observe the process of structural improvement underway in the market.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not accept responsibility for any investment losses incurred based on the contents herein.