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[Market Watch] Bitcoin Trades Sideways at $69,000… Tug-of-War Between Rate Cut Expectations on Jobs Shock and Fears of Recession
After recovering from last week’s steep sell-off dubbed “Black Thursday” and attempting to retake the $70,000 level, Bitcoin (BTC) lost upward momentum over the weekend and entered a consolidation phase around $69,000. This week is shaping up to be a crucial “super week,” with the release of the U.S. January employment report and the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which are expected to determine the direction of the crypto market.
◇ Bitcoin Fails to Reclaim $70,000 Over the Weekend… Crawling Sideways at $69,000
As of 7:32 a.m. KST on the 8th, data from CoinMarketCap show Bitcoin trading at $69,463.93, down 1.85% from 24 hours earlier. Although it appeared to rebound after briefly touching the $71,000 level during intraday trading, gains were erased amid Middle East–driven geopolitical risks and reduced weekend liquidity, pushing prices back into mildly negative territory.
Ethereum (ETH) was up 1.55% to $2,095.44, successfully defending the $2,000 support level, while major altcoins such as Ripple (XRP, +3.09%) and Dogecoin (DOGE, +0.70%) posted mixed performances, reflecting a cautious market mood. Total cryptocurrency market capitalization stood at $2.38 trillion, down 0.7% from the previous day, indicating sideways movement.
◇ Last Week’s Decline Driven by a “Triple Whammy”… Employment Data Key This Week
The recent market downturn was driven by a combination of factors: fears of an economic recession due to slowing U.S. employment data, heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and capital outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs. In particular, clear signs of a cooling labor market—such as a 205% month-on-month jump in planned layoffs in January and job openings falling to the lowest level in five years and eight months—undermined investor sentiment.
Market attention this week is focused on the U.S. January nonfarm payrolls report due on the 11th. Wall Street expects 70,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.4%. If the actual figures fall well short of expectations, recession fears could resurface, triggering risk-off sentiment toward risky assets. Conversely, if slower job growth strengthens the case for an earlier rate cut by the Federal Reserve, expectations of renewed liquidity could help markets rebound.
◇ CPI Also in Focus… Volatility Likely to Increase
The January Consumer Price Index (CPI), scheduled for release on the 13th, is another key variable. Markets are anticipating a 0.3% month-on-month increase. If inflation is confirmed to be under control, the Fed may be able to focus its policy efforts on supporting the labor market, increasing the likelihood of rate cuts—a development that could be favorable for the crypto market.
Experts see this week as a critical turning point that could shape market trends in the first half of the year. Aditya Bhave, an economist at Bank of America (BoA), noted that “the labor market is the biggest risk to the economic outlook,” highlighting heightened market sensitivity.
An industry official said, “Bitcoin’s failure to firmly settle above $70,000 has pushed it into a short-term correction phase,” adding that “depending on this week’s employment and inflation data, the market could either test support around $65,000 or attempt a breakout above $72,000.”
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and no responsibility is taken for investment losses based on this content. The information should be interpreted solely for informational purposes.*