 ▲ Bitcoin (BTC), Iran War, Crude Oil/AI Generated Image |
As the global oil market reels from an unprecedented crisis triggered by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Bitcoin (BTC) is defending the $64,000 support level, demanding new survival strategies from investors.
In a video uploaded to his YouTube channel on March 9 (local time), cryptocurrency analyst Lark Davis warned of a historic oil crisis caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and its ripple effects on the digital asset market. Davis described the current situation—where 20% of global oil supply is disrupted—as the largest crisis on record and projected that oil prices could surge to $200 per barrel.
The Group of Seven (G7) has responded by releasing 400 million barrels from strategic petroleum reserves. However, Davis explained, “Considering the daily shortfall, this is merely a temporary measure that can last only about 20 days.” If the oil crisis is not resolved within weeks, surging production and transportation costs could reignite inflation and deliver a shock to the global economy comparable to the Great Depression of 1929.
Amid extreme market fear, Bitcoin continues to demonstrate resilience by holding firmly above the $64,000 support level near its 20-day moving average. While citing historical data showing that prices have typically rebounded after sharp spikes in the Volatility Index (VIX), Davis cautioned against complacency, warning of exceptional bear-market scenarios in which additional declines of more than 40% have occurred in the short term.
From an investment strategy perspective, Davis expressed a positive outlook on MicroStrategy (MSTR), which is expected to generate strong returns if Bitcoin prices rise, and is considering portfolio rebalancing. He noted that Marathon Digital (MARA), relatively undervalued compared to Iris Energy (IREN), which faces stock dilution concerns, presents a more attractive opportunity based on its data center operations and transition toward artificial intelligence.
Whether spot Bitcoin ETF investors continue to provide inflows or respond to global uncertainty with sell-offs is expected to be a key variable determining the market’s direction. Rather than adopting extreme pessimism, Davis urged investors to monitor both developments in the energy market and Bitcoin’s ability to maintain its support level, advocating for a cautious approach.
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