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A massive variable dubbed a “$6 trillion deposit shift” has emerged in Washington, D.C., placing the fate of the U.S. cryptocurrency market structure bill, the CLARITY Act, at a critical crossroads.
According to investment-focused media outlet FXLeaders on Feb. 19 (local time), members of Congress and the White House are set to meet on Feb. 20 to discuss issues surrounding the $180 billion stablecoin market and the potential movement of up to $6 trillion in bank deposits. With March 1 presented as the negotiation deadline, whether the bill passes is expected to shape the regulatory landscape for digital assets in the United States.
The core issue is the so-called “yield war.” Some platforms currently offer rewards of around 4% to stablecoin holders, while interest rates on deposits at major banks remain below 1%. Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan warned that if such rewards expand, up to $6 trillion in deposits could leave the traditional banking sector. Banking lobbyists have reportedly proposed a sweeping ban on all forms of rewards for holding stablecoins to prevent an outflow of funds.
The prevention principle includes a so-called “no interest and yield” rule. It would comprehensively block both monetary and non-monetary rewards for holding stablecoins and strictly limit indirect incentives such as marketing bonuses or cashback. However, officials have discussed the possibility of limited exceptions, provided they do not affect local lending markets.
The cryptocurrency industry, meanwhile, has strongly pushed back. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong criticized the banking sector’s actions as “regulatory capture” and called for a fair competitive environment. Ripple Chief Legal Officer Stuart Alderoty recently attended a White House meeting and signaled the possibility of compromise. The industry is said to have proposed a middle-ground approach that would restrict “passive yield” for simple holding while allowing “transaction-based rewards” tied to economic activities such as payments.
Patrick Witt, the White House’s lead negotiator, has set a March 1, 2026 deadline for reaching an agreement. If the CLARITY Act, which passed the House in 2025, stalls in the Senate, the United States could once again face a regulatory vacuum. Prediction market Kalshi currently reflects a 59% probability that the bill will pass within 2026. That figure could fluctuate significantly depending on the outcome of the upcoming meeting.
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